The US Federal Reserve has held interest rates steady at 4.25 %–4.50 % in its June 18 FOMC decision, marking the fourth consecutive pause since December 2024.
Markets widely expected the move. CME FedWatch data showed a 99.9% probability of a rate hold heading into the meeting. Cooling inflation, resilient labor markets, and ongoing trade-related price risks shaped the decision.
Fed’s Interest Rate Continues to Frustrate US Markets
Bitcoin held near $105,000 after the announcement, while Ethereum traded near $2,500. Traders are watching for signals on the Fed’s next move.
The Fed released its updated Summary of Economic Projections and dot plot alongside the decision. These show whether policymakers still anticipate two rate cuts in 2025 — or are leaning toward fewer.
The dot plot matters more than the decision itself. If FOMC members now project just one cut or delay into Q4, markets could react with renewed caution. Any hawkish tilt could pressure risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.
The Fed last raised rates in July 2023. Since then, inflation has steadily declined from 5.3% to 2.4% as of June, approaching the Fed’s 2% target. But services inflation and tariff-related costs remain sticky.
Crypto markets are especially sensitive to Fed signals. Lower rates typically boost liquidity and risk appetite, driving capital into Bitcoin, Ethereum, and altcoins.
Conversely, a prolonged high-rate environment limits upside potential.
With economic concerns heating up due to the Iran-Israel conflict, rate policy is also becoming a political issue. Donald Trump has openly pressured the Fed to cut faster, while current policymakers remain cautious.
Looking ahead, the July 31 FOMC meeting will likely hinge on June inflation and jobs data. For now, crypto traders will dissect every word from Powell for guidance on the Fed’s timing — and tolerance for market volatility.
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