Hedera has posted a muted recovery in recent sessions. HBAR price remains constrained by cautious sentiment across the broader cryptocurrency market. Uncertainty in Bitcoin and macro conditions continues to cap upside attempts.
However, bearish traders may need to monitor changing signals. Derivatives positioning and capital flow indicators suggest the current balance could shift.
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Hedera Traders Could Be In Trouble
HBAR is currently experiencing strong bearish positioning in the futures market. Traders have opened a notable number of short contracts, reflecting expectations of further downside. The liquidation map highlights that positions are skewed toward bears at current levels.
Data shows that HBAR bears could face approximately $4.9 million in liquidations if the price crosses the $0.1143 mark. Such forced liquidations can trigger rapid upside volatility. When short positions unwind, buying pressure increases as traders close contracts.
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The Chaikin Money Flow indicator offers additional insight into capital movement. CMF measures inflows and outflows to assess whether buyers or sellers dominate. The indicator is currently rising, although it remains at the zero line.
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An upward slope at zero suggests that outflows are at par with the inflows. However, the gap will likely diminish as inflows rise. Declining outflows often precede a shift toward net inflows. If this transition occurs, HBAR could gain the support needed for a short-term recovery.
Bitcoin Is Unhelpful
Correlation trends also support a potential shift. HBAR’s correlation with Bitcoin has declined in recent weeks. The current coefficient has dropped to 0.09, signaling weaker alignment with the crypto market leader, inching closer to completely dissociating with Bitcoin.
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Reduced correlation can benefit altcoins during periods of Bitcoin uncertainty. If HBAR decouples further, price action may reflect investor-specific demand rather than broader market weakness. This flexibility could allow HBAR to chart an independent recovery path.
HBAR Price Has a Few Barriers To Breach
HBAR is trading at $0.1019 at the time of writing. The altcoin remains above the key $0.0961 support level at the 38.2% Fib line. However, it faces resistance at $0.1035, which aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement. This level currently caps upward momentum.
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Flipping $0.1035 into support would mark a short-term breakthrough. Combined with declining outflows, this shift could fuel a recovery rally. HBAR would then target $0.1109 at the 61.8% Fibonacci.
This level is considered a critical support for an asset, and flipping it would likely trigger stronger buying among the investors, pushing the HBAR price higher.
This would bring HBAR past $0.1143, a level that threatens $4.9 million in shorts liquidations. Sustained strength could extend gains toward $0.1215 and $0.1349 eventually, helping recover year-to-date losses.
If bullish signals fail to materialize, consolidation may continue. Persistent outflows would limit breakout attempts. A breakdown below $0.0961support could expose HBAR to further downside near $0.0870. Such a move would invalidate the near-term bullish outlook and reinforce bearish control.
